Crowd Consensus - Fools Game

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📊 Median of 73 predictions

Crowd Consensus

📊 Voter Turnout

70%

✅ Yes / No Split

Yes 70%

No 30%

🏡 Alliance Seats (300)

145

130

15

10

BNP 145

BJI+NCP 130

Indie 15

Others 10

📊 Constituency Breakdown (262 seats picked)

Based on 262 constituency picks vs median alliance prediction

BNP

127

vs predicted 145 — -18

BJI+NCP

120

vs predicted 130 — -10

Indie

2

vs predicted 15 — -13

Others

13

vs predicted 10 — +3

Only 262 of 300 constituencies picked — breakdown is partial

Based on 73 predictions

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How is this calculated?

This is not an average. We use the median — the middle value when all predictions are sorted. This means extreme or joke predictions don't skew the result.

Voter Turnout — Median of all 73 predictions. If 10 people predict turnouts of 40%, 55%, 60%, 70%, 80%, the median is 60% — the middle value.
Yes / No Split — Median of each percentage across all predictions, representing the crowd's best guess on the referendum outcome.
Alliance Seats — Median of each alliance's seat count, then normalized so the total equals exactly 300. This prevents any single outlier prediction from inflating one alliance's count.
Constituency Winners — For each constituency, the candidate picked by the most predictors wins (mode/plurality). If 7 out of 12 predictors pick Candidate A for Dhaka-8, Candidate A is the consensus winner there.
Constituency Breakdown — Counts the party affiliations of all consensus constituency winners and groups them into alliances (BNP, BJI+NCP, Independent, Others). This is compared against the median alliance seat prediction to show whether the individual picks align with the overall seat forecast.

The consensus updates automatically as new predictions are submitted. With 73 predictions so far, the more people participate, the more reliable the crowd wisdom becomes.

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